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Establishing the definite from the indefinite
pp. 87-117
Abstrakt
Human nature inclines us to ignore indefiniteness, to underestimate it, or to hide it behind explanations, theories and absurdly small probabilities. When Richard P. Feynman was preparing an assessment of the Challenger space shuttle accident of 1986, he asked engineers and managers from NASA, "How high is the probability of such an accident occurring?" While the engineers would have expected a probability of around 1/100, the managers estimated it to be 1/100,000—a value that is obviously much too small. This absurdly small number would mean that a manned rocket could be launched into space once every day for 300 years without an accident ever occurring.
Publication details
Published in:
Pirner Hans J. (2015) The unknown as an engine for science: an essay on the definite and the indefinite. Dordrecht, Springer.
Seiten: 87-117
DOI: 10.1007/978-3-319-18509-5_4
Referenz:
Pirner Hans J. (2015) Establishing the definite from the indefinite, In: The unknown as an engine for science, Dordrecht, Springer, 87–117.